Netanyahu trails Eisenkot in new poll as Israel's right-wing bloc weakens

The newly established religious-nationalist People of Israel party, led by Ofer Winter, is projected to win six Knesset seats in October elections, according to a Channel 12 poll published Wednesday, pushing its political rival, Religious Zionism, below the four-seat electoral threshold. The poll also projected Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party winning 25 seats, widening its lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, with just 21 seats.

The survey highlights the depth of the crisis Netanyahu’s camp currently faces: The right-wing bloc — Jewish Power,  the Likud, People of Israel and the ultra-Orthodox parties — would hold 49 seats, while the Zionist opposition — Together, Yisrael Beitenu and the Democrats — would win 59. The non-Zionist, Arab parties, which could support an opposition government from outside the coalition, would take 12 seats.

A strong newcomer

Only launched on Tuesday, People of Israel is the latest in a long list of new parties established ahead of the Oct. 27 elections. Among the others are Zionist Home, founded by former ministers Hili Tropper (previously Blue and White) and Yoaz Hendel (previously New Hope); Identity, led by former Knesset member Moshe Feiglin (previously Likud); and Unity, founded by former minister Gilad Erdan (previously Likud). Experts who spoke with Al-Monitor said that amid all the new contenders, Winter differs from the others because of his clear affiliation with the religious-nationalist right and People of Israel being his first foray into politics.

Winter, 55, a retired brigadier general, served in the Israeli military for 34 years. Among other posts, he served as Central Command chief of staff and as military secretary to the defense minister. In 2021, chief of staff Aviv Kochavi reprimanded Winter over a conversation he had with right-wing Knesset member Naftali Bennett without prior approval from his superiors, effectively halting his scheduled promotion and ultimately leading to his retirement from military service three years later, in 2024. On Oct. 7, 2023, after hearing the initial reports of Hamas' attack, Winter traveled on his own initiative to Kibbutz Be’eri to join the fighting.

Affiliated with the settler movement, Winter said at the People of Israel launch event that he and his fellow party members “are a clear and distinct part of the right-wing camp.” “We know exactly where we came from and where we are going,” he remarked. “There will never be a Palestinian state here. There is only one solution in Gaza — emigration.”

Speaking to Al-Monitor about recent developments, Times of Israel political analyst Tal Schneider said, “Wednesday’s poll reflects the initial enthusiasm following the formation of the new party, but a lot can change before the election in two months. Netanyahu fears a scenario in which neither Winter’s party nor Religious Zionism passes the Knesset’s electoral threshold, which would significantly weaken the right-wing bloc.” She added that this is why the prime minister is pushing the smaller right-wing parties to unite and run on a single ticket.

According to Schneider, the establishment of People of Israel could shake up the balance within Netanyahu’s camp, though it will probably have little effect on the balance of power between Netanyahu's bloc and the opposition. 

“Winter’s rhetoric and agenda are clearly right wing,” Schneider said. “But more than that, there is bad blood between Winter and Eisenkot, who served as defense minister between 2023 and 2024, the year Winter was forced out of the military.”

Given the personal and other dynamics, the chances of Winter joining Eisenkot’s camp are virtually nil, Schneider estimated.

Eisenkot over Netanyahu

The Channel 12 poll predicted Eisenkot’s party winning four more seats than Netanyahu’s Likud. A Channel 13 poll published on Thursday projected a similar gap, with Yashar! at 24 seats and Netanyahu’s Likud at 19.

Eisenkot announced the establishment of his party last year, on Sept. 16, 2025. At the time, polls pointed to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett as Netanyahu’s main rival, with opposition leader Yair Lapid close behind. Bennett and Lapid joined forces on April 26 to run on a single ticket. Still, a survey published July 16 by Zman Israel had Eisenkot, for the first time, as the leading candidate for prime minister, projecting Yashar! to win 23 seats versus 21 for Likud.

Most polls published since have produced the same result — that is, Eisenkot as the leading candidate of the opposition camp, and his party as consistently outperforming Netanyahu’s Likud.

Interviewed by Radio North on Wednesday, Lapid said he viewed Eisenkot as a political partner, but made clear, unsurprisingly, that he thinks Bennett should lead the next coalition.

“You won’t hear me speaking out against Eisenkot,” Lapid said. “He’s our partner, and we’re going to form a government with him. Bennett should be prime minister.”

Lapid is not the only opposition leader to suggest that someone other than Eisenkot should serve as Israel’s next prime minister. A video posted on X by Yisrael Beitenu on Wednesday presented its leader, Avigdor Lieberman, as the best candidate for the premiership.

“There is no one as wise as someone with experience,” the post said, a clear reference to Lieberman’s long ministerial career, having held the foreign, finance, defense, national infrastructure and transportation portfolios. By comparison, Eisenkot served a single year as a minister without portfolio following the Oct. 7 Hamas assault.

“Internal battles within the opposition camp have so far been rather low-key,” Schneider said. “We are in an election campaign, so naturally each opposition party leader must promote himself in order not to lose voters to Eisenkot.”

Attacks on the left

Over the past month, Likud leaders and right-wing media outlets have intensified their rhetoric against the left-wing Democrats party and its leader, Yair Golan.

A post published Thursday on Netanyahu’s Facebook account said, “Eisenkot will establish a left-wing government with Yair Golan and the Arab parties.” In another Netanyahu post that day, an AI-generated video insinuates his opponents are plotting against Israel, with Golan and Mansour Abbas, leader of the Arab Raam party, hiding inside a Trojan horse ridden by Eisenkot and Lieberman. On Aug. 17, Likud spokesperson Guy Levy had remarked on Channel 14, “It’s either us or a coalition that relies on the Arab parties, Mansour Abbas, the Democrats and Yair Golan.”

A senior political source speaking on condition of anonymity told Al-Monitor that Netanyahu is worried about the possibility of Eisenkot securing a 61-seat majority after the elections even without the Arab parties. “This is not a scenario Netanyahu can afford to rule out, and this is why Likud is trying to delegitimize Golan by portraying him as an ally of non-Zionist parties.”

Former Labor Knesset member Emilie Moatti, now number 14 on the Democrats electoral list, told Al-Monitor, “The strength of our party lies in its proven ability to work with other political forces, including those that hold different ideological positions.”

She added, “Netanyahu knows that the Democrats are ready to accept this and work with Eisenkot, Bennett and Lapid. He knows that our top priority is to topple the government and establish a coalition of change in its place, even if we have to pay a high price and compromise.”

Israel’s public broadcaster, Kan, reported on Thursday that despite a police assessment that threats against Golan were increasing, the Shin Bet has not yet decided to assign him a security detail. In response, the Democrats sent a letter to the chairman of the Central Elections Committee accusing Shin Bet Director David Zini of “knowingly neglecting Yair Golan’s security and endangering his life.”

According to Moatti, “Certain politicians have forgotten the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. They have forgotten the incitement against him that preceded the killing.” She called on Shin Bet to provide security details for both Eisenkot and Golan. “The internet is full of real threats against their lives,” she said.