Saudi Arabia to announce Red Sea coalition to counter Houthi threats

Saudi Arabia is expected to announce a new multinational military coalition for the Red Sea in a bid to preempt Iranian-backed moves to restrict passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Saudi-led initiative could be unveiled as early as Thursday, the deadline set for around 50 nations — including the United States, Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey — to confirm their participation, two senior diplomatic sources and a third senior US official speaking on background told Al-Monitor. Red Sea littoral states central to the effort, including Egypt and Sudan, have agreed to take part alongside Djibouti and Somalia, the sources said.

However, US support is seen as vital for the initiative to really take off. A well-placed source familiar with the discussions said there had been no decision from Washington as to whether to join the coalition, which will be headquartered in Riyadh and under Saudi command.

A Pentagon spokesperson did not return Al-Monitor's request for comment by publication time. US Central Command spokesperson Tim Hawkins declined to comment on Saudi Arabia's plans.

France, Germany and Italy are among a host of countries waiting for the United States to respond. "Everybody is waiting for the US to show its hand. Without real assets, this initiative won't take off," one of the officials said.

US Central Command is currently focused on enforcing a naval blockade of Iran and may therefore be reluctant to divert forces toward Yemen at this time, two former US defense officials told Al-Monitor.

One source said the United Arab Emirates had not yet been invited to the new coalition. Pakistan, along with Bangladesh, both received an invite.

Am Emirati official did not respond to Al-Monitor's request for comment.

Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait have all been invited and are expected to join. Oman, which was invited, prizes its mediating role in the Iran talks. It is therefore unlikely to risk that position by taking part in a structure that will be perceived as challenging Iran. Turkey, a critical NATO member and rising military power, is unlikely to want to take orders from Saudi Arabia, which was ruled by the Ottomans until 1918.

Rapid recruitment

The sources said the Saudi effort has gained urgency as Riyadh strives to head off a replay of Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran's Houthi allies in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital global shipping chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

Up to 80% of Saudi crude exports were shipped through the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran conflict began. Bab el-Mandeb has therefore become far more critical, with over half of Saudi oil now transported overland to loading terminals at the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

The Houthis, a Yemeni militant group designated by the United States as a foreign terrorist organization, imposed a maritime embargo on Saudi exports through Bab el-Mandeb last week. That move followed a strike on Sanaa International Airport in Houthi-controlled northern Yemen. While the Saudi-backed Yemeni government claimed responsibility for the attack, a Houthi spokesperson blamed Saudi Arabia, saying the group had fired missiles and drones toward Saudi Arabia "in response to this blatant and criminal aggression."

The Houthis are now threatening to impose fees on ships sailing through the southern Red Sea, mimicking Iran's attempts to collect tolls for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.

While the announcement of the initiative appears timed to telegraph unity against Iranian attempts to dominate the shipping lanes, the grouping will have a broader remit of combating piracy, smuggling and terrorism in the Red Sea. It builds on earlier diplomatic efforts like the Saudi-led Red Sea Council, formed in 2020 and grouping eight Red Sea littoral states.