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Analysis

Turkey eyes gains from US-Iran deal as Ankara balances Tehran, Washington

Turkey sees the US-Iran memorandum as a chance to reduce regional spillover risks, revive trade with Tehran and gain diplomatic breathing room.

This photograph shows a Turkish national flag at the Razi-Kapikoy border crossing with Iran next to a black flag on the Iranian side, following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in eastern Turkey on March 2, 2026.
This photograph shows a Turkish national flag at the Razi-Kapikoy border crossing with Iran next to a black flag on the Iranian side, following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in eastern Turkey on March 2, 2026. — Ali IHSAN OZTURK / AFP via Getty Images

ANKARA — Turkey is cautiously welcoming the US-Iran memorandum of understanding — hoping it will ease regional tensions, reopen space for trade with Tehran and reduce the risk of a wider war on its borders — while remaining concerned that the deal’s unresolved questions could reignite conflict.

The United States and Iran on Wednesday signed a 14-point memorandum aimed at extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The deal sets a 60-day window for negotiations on a final agreement covering Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, frozen assets and regional de-escalation, including in Lebanon. 

For Turkey, the agreement offers a potential strategic opening: lower energy and shipping risks, a chance to revive trade with Iran and less pressure to balance between the United States, Iran and Israel.

Ankara’s balancing act

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