The nightmare scenario in any Gulf conflict has long been a disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude prices rocketing past $100 per barrel and rattling the global economy.

Yet in the early days of the US-Israeli war against Iran that erupted on Feb. 28, it was natural gas that delivered the sharper market shock after Tehran announced the closure of the strategic waterway, which handles roughly 20% of global crude supplies.

On March 2, after markets opened following US-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, Europe’s benchmark gas contract surged nearly 40%. Benchmark Brent crude climbed roughly 6% that day, trading below $80 a barrel. Oil has since continued to rise, breaching $90 by March 6 and flirting with a run past $100. That put Brent on track for a 30% weekly rise, while European gas prices spiked 60% in that span. 

This contrast highlighted how the region’s evolving energy landscape may be reshaping geopolitical risk, while upending some conventional wisdom about Middle East energy shocks. The trigger was a sudden halt in shipments from Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas.