The US-Iran war has rapidly expanded beyond military targets since hostilities erupted Feb. 28, with the conflict pulling the Gulf’s most critical infrastructure into the line of fire — from oil refineries and gas terminals to ports, airports and even data centers.

What began as retaliation for US-Israeli strikes has evolved into a sweeping campaign against the region’s economic arteries. Alongside raising the risks of prolonged supply shocks that could impact the global economy, this is already presenting a critical test for Gulf states attempting to diversify their economies away from oil.

Although disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have long been expected as a by-product of a regional war with Iran, Tehran is expanding the list of targets — with other key energy assets potentially in the crosshairs. “The question now is whether Iran will continue escalating by increasing its targeting of critical energy infrastructure,” Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Al-Monitor. 

What happened: The most immediate impact has been on energy. On Monday, Saudi Arabia said debris from intercepted drones caused a limited fire at the Ras Tanura oil refinery, prompting precautionary shutdowns of some units. Riyadh said supplies were unaffected despite halting operations at the facility, which is part of a major export complex.