Israel now estimates that regime change in Tehran is unlikely in the near term, despite an accelerated pace of strikes against state symbols and other targets, according to Israeli experts.

This assessment was underscored by the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Iran’s new supreme leader.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Saturday, "We have a systematic plan to eradicate the Iranian regime and achieve many other objectives." Addressing the Iranian people directly, he added that the "moment of truth" is approaching. 

Still, Israeli experts say that Netanyahu is aware of the difficulties in triggering regime change. The example of Gaza showed that even a years-long campaign with thousands of troops on the ground cannot produce regime change without a cohesive opposition movement from within, which is very hard to achieve in an oppressive political environment.

“The aerial-bombing operation against Iran, which does not include soldiers on the ground, is unlikely to generate large-enough demonstrations and the defection of the Iranian military necessary for toppling the Tehran government,” former Defense Ministry adviser and an Arab and Palestinian affairs analyst Michael Milshtein, of the Tel Aviv University Dayan Center, told Al-Monitor.