Turkey is weathering the immediate energy shock from the Iran war, but the disruption is exposing the fragility of an import-dependent system vulnerable to prolonged conflict and rising global prices.

The Iran war isn’t causing an energy shortage for Turkey right now. But if the conflict continues, as global supplies tighten and prices rise, Turkey will have to balance short-term stability with longer-term risks.

Global energy markets have been jolted by the war, with Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows. Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure in the Gulf and throughout the region have forced production cuts and export halts. 

The war has taken about 8 million barrels per day out of the global supply, according to the International Energy Agency, marking one of the largest disruptions in decades. Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, while LNG exports and shipping routes have been disrupted, tightening global gas markets and driving up transportation and insurance costs.