While Turkey remains bullish that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland will backfire, the move is nevertheless forcing Ankara to confront the limits of its influence as it tries to defend Somalia’s unity amid deepening internal fractures.

From Ankara’s perspective, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is a strategically ill-judged move likely to overreach Israel’s capabilities. Nevertheless, it complicates Turkey’s effort to safeguard Somalia’s territorial integrity at a moment when Mogadishu’s internal divisions are deepening, forcing Ankara to defend its dominant position in the Horn of Africa without appearing to dictate outcomes or absorb the political costs of Somalia’s own fragility.

Israel announced on Dec. 26 its recognition of Somaliland, a region that declared independence in 1991 amidst a bloody civil war and collapse of the central government. Becoming the first country to recognize Somaliland, the move was framed by the Israeli side as advancing strategic, security and political interests in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor.

Turkey’s deep bet on Somalia