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Analysis

Turkey moves into Somalia’s untapped oil, raises stakes in Horn of Africa

Turkey’s plan to start drilling in 2026 marks its most assertive bid yet to secure a strategic foothold in Somalia, as Mogadishu continues to fight an Islamist insurgency.

This picture taken on Aug. 23, 2019 in Istanbul shows a view of Turkish General Directorate of Mineral research and Exploration's (MTA) Oruc Reis seismic research vessel docked at Haydarpasa port, which searches for hydrocarbon, oil, natural gas and coal reserves at sea.
This picture taken on Aug. 23, 2019, in Istanbul shows a view of Turkish General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration's Oruc Reis seismic research vessel docked at Haydarpasa port, which searches for hydrocarbon, oil, natural gas and coal reserves at sea. — OZAN KOSE/AFP via Getty Images

With preparations underway to start drilling for oil and gas in Somalia, Ankara stands poised to expand its strategic footprint in the Horn of Africa, raising the risk of intensifying rivalries among regional and Gulf powers, which each have stakes in the Horn.

Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar earlier this month announced that Turkey will begin exploratory drilling operations in three offshore areas under Somalia's jurisdiction as well as on land in 2026 to assess their financial feasibility. The move follows months of seismic surveys by the TPAO, the national energy company, and marks the most concrete step yet in Turkey’s bid to secure a foothold in Somalia’s untapped hydrocarbon sector.

“We completed our seismic operations this year, and 2026 will most likely be our drilling year in Somalia’s offshore zone,” Bayraktar told journalists at a Dec. 3 press conference. 

Officials and experts believe that even modest production could reshape Somalia’s fragile economy while anchoring Turkey more deeply in the political, security and commercial landscape of the Horn.

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