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Sudani ahead in early Iraq vote count, path to power uncertain

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani is not guaranteed to stay on even if his list wins.

SAFIN HAMID/AFP via Getty Images
Employees of Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission count votes at the end of the parliamentary election at a polling station in Erbil, the capital of Iraq's autonomous northern Kurdish region, on Nov. 9, 2025. — SAFIN HAMID/AFP via Getty Images

Early indications suggest that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s list reaped the most votes in Tuesday’s parliamentary elections, though how the results will impact the next government's formation remains uncertain as negotiations to form a coalition could drag on for months. 

Preliminary results from the Independent High Electoral Commission indicated that Sudani's Reconstruction and Development list came in first in at least eight of Iraq's 19 provinces, including Baghdad. Reuters reported that Sudani's list came in first overall, though the final tally had yet to be released as of 10:00 p.m. local time (2:00 p.m. ET).

One source close to Sudani told Agence France-Presse earlier on Wednesday that Sudani "secured a major victory." Other sources told the outlet that his list had won the largest bloc of any list with around 50 seats in the 329-member parliament. Iraq's electoral commission has not yet issued the full results across the 19 provinces.

The commission said earlier that voter turnout was around 55%, an improvement from the record low of 43% in 2021. Voter participation had declined in every election since 2005 until Tuesday’s vote. 

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