The Israel-Iran ceasefire may have quieted missiles for now, but it has stirred up a storm of recalculations in Ankara, ranging from its regional diplomacy playbook to its air defense priorities. Caught between its historical rivalry with Iran and its uneasy alliance with the West, Turkey looks to emerge from the latest regional conflict with both opportunities and anxieties.

While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to position Ankara as a mediator during the crisis, the swift collapse of Iran’s defenses jolted Turkish security circles. Defense planners are now pushing for accelerated military modernization, including upgrades to Turkey’s missile systems and stealth fighter program. At the same time, Iran’s weakening grip in the region may open space for Ankara to reshape dynamics in the South Caucasus and beyond. With Erdogan striking a rare balance between diplomacy and deterrence, Turkey is trying to navigate the aftermath of the conflict with characteristic ambition and familiar uncertainty.

Ankara’s muted response

Israel launched a wave of surprise airstrikes on June 13 against Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure, marking a sharp escalation in long-simmering tensions. Iran responded with volleys of ballistic missiles targeting Israel. The conflict widened on Sunday when the United States entered the fray, striking Iranian nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at the United States' Al Udeid airbase, in Qatar. Just as fears of a broader regional war intensified, President Donald Trump announced late Monday that his administration had brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, bringing a fragile halt to 12 days of hostilities.