President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the Tuesday election is not expected to shift the foundational trajectories of US policy toward the Gulf. Saudi Arabia's strategic importance, viewed as a counterbalance to Iranian and Chinese influence, remains intact. Security frameworks, longstanding defense treaties and a robust US military presence in the Gulf will likely endure, ensuring continuity in regional partnerships with the Arab monarchies.

However, where Trump's and President Joe Biden’s administrations diverge is in their approach. Biden initially adopted a more cautious, values-based stance, emphasizing human rights and placing conditions on arms sales to signal a "recalibration" of the US-Saudi relationship. Early in his term, Biden paused certain arms sales to Saudi Arabia over concerns about human rights and the conflict in Yemen. Nevertheless, defensive support to the kingdom has continued, increasing again as his term progressed. By the second half of 2024, the White House resumed substantial defense shipments to Riyadh, including $750 million in bombs in August and a $1.5 billion package of anti-tank and air-to-air munitions in October to bolster Saudi Arabia’s defensive needs in a more turbulent Middle East. 

In contrast, Trump’s first term marked an era of expansive arms sales to Saudi Arabia, with a landmark $110 billion deal announced in 2017. Even with congressional objections, he pushed through an $8 billion arms package in 2019, emphasizing Saudi Arabia’s role as a counterweight to Iran. During his term, the United States supplied 79% of Saudi Arabia's major conventional weapons, accounting for nearly a quarter of all US arms exports from 2016 to 2020. 

According to Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a US-based consulting firm, Trump’s return may revive this pattern. "It is reasonable to expect Trump to pursue an increasingly transactional foreign policy, with massive defense deals with wealthy Gulf states like Saudi Arabia at the center," he noted. Likewise, “it’s likely his administration will place less emphasis on human rights concerns or regional stability issues, viewing Saudi Arabia as a crucial ally without preconditions."