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Analysis

From Syria to Ukraine: What’s driving Moscow’s thinking on Israel-Iran conflict?

Russia is concerned about spillover from the Iran-Israel conflict into Syria but believes that the situation in the Middle East could bolster its war effort in Ukraine, experts told Al-Monitor.

Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, shakes hands with Ali Akbar Ahmadian, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council on Sept. 12, 2024.
Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, shakes hands with Ali Akbar Ahmadian, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, on Sept. 12, 2024. — VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Russia faces both challenges and opportunities in the conflict between Iran and Israel in the Middle East. Analysts who spoke to Al-Monitor said that an escalation could affect Russia’s position in Syria as well as the war in Ukraine.

Iran carried out a large missile attack against Israel on Oct. 1, causing damage to some Israeli security facilities. The Islamic Republic said the attack was a response to the July assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the Israeli strike on Beirut in September that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iranian commander Abbas Nilforushan and others.

Israel has vowed to respond to Iran, though retaliatory action has yet to take place. The Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon is ongoing.

Russia criticized Israel in the aftermath of the missile attack. The Kremlin’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, told the UN Security Council the day after the incident that Israel seeks “direct conflict” with Iran.

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