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Analysis

Two years on, Iran may have stifled Mahsa Amini unrest, but dissidence remains

With unprecedented repression and disinformation campaigns, the Iranian government appears to have largely suppressed the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement sparked by Mahsa Amini's death, but a resurgence of the unrest maybe a matter of when, not if.

People take part in a protest in Trafalgar Square after marching through London ahead of the first anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini, on September 13, 2023, in London, England.
People take part in a protest in Trafalgar Square after marching through London ahead of the first anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini, on September 13, 2023, in London, England. — Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Sept. 16 marks the second year since Mahsa Amini's death in custody of Iran's hijab implementing police, which left the country engulfed in the largest-ever nationwide unrest, shaking the very foundation of the ruling theocratic establishment. 

On Thursday her father, Amjad Amini, issued an audio statement online saying the family, and those of other victims of the state crackdown, "have the right" to mourn their loved ones in traditional and religious gatherings. But he expressed doubt that security officials will ever authorize any such ceremonies. 

In the run-up to the anniversary, a number of civil society activists and members of the families of those killed in the unrest have been rounded up by Iran's intelligence apparatus, opposition outlets reported on Friday. Security forces have also tightened measures in Mahsa's Kurdish hometown of Saqqez, setting up checkpoints in and around the city with a palpable police presence, and businesses have received warnings against any strike action. 

A similar pattern was in place ahead of the first anniversary last year, when the Amini family was denied permits to mark her death and was effectively placed under house arrest amid the Iranian government's fears about renewed demonstrations.

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