As Turkey’s inflation slows in November, all eyes now on pay hikes
Despite the fall in the annual inflation rate, Turkish consumers are likely to face monthly price increases averaging 3% to 4% in 2023.
Turkey’s annual consumer inflation eased to 84.4% in November from a 24-year high of 85.5% the previous month, slowing for the first time in 18 months, official data showed Monday.
Prices rose 2.9% on a monthly basis in November, the Turkish Statistical Institute said. Turkey’s inflation was stoked by a series of unorthodox rate cuts by the central bank starting in September 2021 that sent the Turkish lira into a tailspin.
The fall in the annual inflation rate was in line with expectations and owed largely to the statistical effect of the high base the same month last year. Month-on-month price increases have averaged about 3.5% in the past two years. Even if they still top 3% in December, annual inflation is expected to drop to somewhere between 65% and 70% due to the favorable base effect. But despite the falling annual rate, consumers are likely to face monthly price increases averaging 3% to 4% next year.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — headed for a tough reelection test after two decades in power — is expected to portray the annual fall as proof that his controversial economic policy is paying off. “Did we go down to single digits on the interest rate? We did. And it will continue like this. Don’t worry, inflation, too, will go down,” he said in a recent speech. The central bank delivered the rate cuts at the behest of Erdogan, who holds the unconventional view that high interest rates cause high inflation. Last month, the bank lowered its policy rate by 150 basis points to 9%, bringing it to single digits as Erdogan had urged.
