On Sept. 7 the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran will meet in Tehran for the third trilateral summit on Syria as part of the Astana process. The agenda is likely to center around the situation in Idlib, the largest area still controlled by the Syrian opposition. Ankara would like to keep Idlib under rebel control until the end of the peace process, while Moscow and Tehran are pushing for an offensive against opposition factions. On Sept. 4, the Russian and Syrian air forces resumed their strikes on Idlib after a three-week pause. This may signal that preparation for a ground operation has entered its final stage.

Although an assault on Idlib is almost inevitable, its scale is still under debate, and this will likely be a subject of the talks in Tehran. Turkey may indeed provide some concessions by yielding certain northwestern areas to the regime forces. However, these concessions should be made in a way that would not put the rebel factions under the threat of elimination, disarmament or any critical losses. Every party should be able to “save face.”

It should be kept in mind, however, that the so-called “Greater Idlib” region, which includes parts of Aleppo, Latakia and Hama provinces, should not be considered the “last stronghold” of the opposition. The so-called “Turkish protectorate” — including the northern Aleppo, Afrin, al-Bab, Jarablus and Azaz districts that fell under Turkish control following the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations — hosts almost 35,000 Syrian National Army troops, controlled by Turkey. The territory is also virtually covered by the Turkish air defense system, which enables Turkish air forces to operate in the area, when needed.

At the same time, the politicians in Ankara realize that if the opposition loses Idlib, the Syrian government will not stop there. In an effort to re-establish its authority over the entire country, the regime would then assault the “Turkish protectorate.” Therefore, until Turkey’s leadership has decided to leave Syria, it is a matter of principle for Ankara to maintain the opposition’s control over most of Idlib or even integrate the area into Turkey's protectorate to secure itself. Local moderate opposition factions, amounting to around 50,000 fighters united into the National Liberation Front, may join the Syrian National Army.