Turkey and the European Union will try again to revive their dormant relationship later this month in the Bulgarian Black Sea resort of Varna. Prospects for a positive outcome, however, appear slim as the issues clouding ties continue to mount.

As matters stand, the Varna summit that Ankara called for a year ago may not even be held because of the latest standoff between Turkey and EU member Cyprus over gas exploration rights. If it goes forward, the summit scheduled for March 26 will bring together Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, European Council President Donald Tusk, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Bulgarian President Boyko Borissov in his capacity as EU term president.

Borissov is already pessimistic, telling reporters on Feb. 23 before an informal meeting of EU leaders in Brussels that the Varna meeting would be “a heavy experience … loaded with expectations and tensions.” He said he did not expect agreement on the questions raised there.

The latest Turkey-EU crisis erupted in mid-February, after Ankara sent warships to prevent a drillship contracted by the Greek Cypriot administration hired from the Italian oil company ENI from reaching a gas exploration well located southeast of Cyprus. Ankara does not recognize the exclusive economic zone the Greek Cypriot administration unilaterally declared in the region, saying that Turkish Cypriots have a stake too in the island’s natural resources, which can’t be exploited until the Cyprus problem is settled.