When the protests in Iran began Dec. 28, it wasn’t clear to Tehran’s regional allies whether or not to be concerned. Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Syria’s defiant government, whose existence today has a lot to do with the revolutionary establishment’s decision to fight on their side, all had many reasons to think of developments in Tehran as if they were occurring in Beirut, Baghdad, the Gaza Strip and Damascus. To them, if it rains in Iran, opening umbrellas is necessary wherever they are.
To these countries, the Islamic Republic is more than just financial and political support. To them, Iran is the flag bearer of a project — the “Resistance Axis,” which has been in open confrontation with several rivals on different levels. Over the past four decades, this axis was in the building process and it was introduced gradually to the masses as an alternative to all other agendas and paths in the region. As Iran is the backbone of the axis, whenever Iran is subject to any danger, then all of the allies are in danger. This is one main reason to look at the Iranian unrest from a regional perspective.
Moreover, some of the slogans raised in the protests that caught the attention of international and regional media were those that denounced Iran’s regional policy, mainly support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah and Palestinian factions fighting against Israel. This dismay is actually what you normally hear from your local taxi driver in Tehran anytime the issue is raised. However, a poll by the University of Maryland suggests this is not what most Iranians think. The poll, conducted between December 2016 and June 2017, shows that more than 55% of Iranians approve of their country’s foreign agenda; this includes supporting Hezbollah, helping Assad and not recognizing Israel. This could be a reason for Tehran’s allies to take a breath in the midst of the storm.
Indeed, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was one of the first to appear on TV to address his supporters on the situation in Iran. In a Jan. 2 interview, Nasrallah played down the protests, saying, “In Iran, there is nothing to worry about and the issue is being taken seriously. … The size of the protests is not large.” The 57-year-old Hezbollah leader added, “What is happening in Iran is being well-contained and is not comparable with what happened in 2009. … The problem in Iran now is not political like what happened in 2009,” referring to the protests against the 2009 election results. Nasrallah added, “America, Israel and Saudi Arabia have entered the crisis in Iran.”
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