Will Iranian nuclear deal impact Lebanon?
Although historically a change in regional dynamics has aided the political stalemate in Lebanon, it remains unclear whether this latest breakthrough will help the country elect a president.
Ten and a half months have passed since the presidential seat in Lebanon became vacant on May 25, 2014. There was a general belief in Beirut that the election of a new Lebanese president would depend on the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries, particularly the deal between Tehran and Washington.
A few years ago, just before the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011, there was an equation in Beirut that hinted to the fact that any Lebanese settlement was tied to a Saudi-Syrian accord, which was known as “seen-seen” (Arabic for "S-S," in reference to the first letters of the two countries). Yet, as the war in Syria persisted, it became obvious that Damascus' ability to decisively influence the situation in Lebanon had dwindled.
Several reasons are behind this, most important that Syrian officials have been preoccupied with Syria’s internal situation, as well as the country’s shrinking military and political presence in Beirut. This was followed by Iranian interference in Syrian affairs as the most prominent supporter of the regime, be it directly, through Iranian aid to Syria, or indirectly, through Lebanese Hezbollah joining the Syrian regime as an ally in the war against its opponents.
Thus, the Syrian war has not only led to the decline in Syrian influence in Lebanon. It has also led to the growing Iranian role in Syria and Lebanon. In Beirut the bet has started to be placed on a new equation that will hopefully bring about a solution in Lebanon, namely the US-Iran equation. The general belief was that any agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the West would actually prompt the start of solutions for all the region’s crises, depending on the priority and urgency of the crisis, including the election of a new president in Lebanon.
