Regardless of any new developments that may occur in the next few hours, it remains probable that the process of forming a new Lebanese cabinet will revert back to the starting point from which it began nearly 10 months ago. In fact, it might even go further back as a result of the intransigent and seemingly uncompromising positions expressed by both parties to the dispute: Beirut member of parliament and Prime Minister-designate Tammam Salam versus the largest Christian bloc in parliament, represented by Gen. Michel Aoun. While the former insists on imposing portfolios and the names of ministers on all parties wishing to participate in his coalition government, Aoun considers that such behavior falls contrary to the traditionally required consensual lineup and is an exclusion of Christian representation.

The parliamentary faction to which Salam belongs, namely former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s bloc, lacks the parliamentary majority needed to grant the government the constitutionally required vote of confidence. Furthermore, Aoun’s allies have affirmed their solidarity with his stance through their rejection of Salam’s imposition of a cabinet without taking into account the opinions of participants in his coalition government. As a result of these circumstances, Beirut now faces three prospects:

First is the possibility that Salam will submit to the president a nonconsensual cabinet structure, which would be followed by official decrees announcing the formation of the government. Such an eventuality would likely lead to the immediate resignation of Aoun’s ministers as well as some Shiite and Druze ministers. As a result, the number of ministers who resigned would likely constitute more than a third of the cabinet, leading, per the Lebanese constitution, to the whole government being considered as de facto resigned.

In this case, Salam’s new government would become a caretaker government that lacks procedural powers. Subsequently, the president would have to hold immediate new parliamentary consultations that would lead to the naming of a new prime minister-designate. In essence, the clock would be turned back to the moment when current Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s cabinet resigned on March 22, 2013. The outcomes of such an eventuality are uncertain, in as far as who might be named by the majority of parliamentarians to form a government. Moreover, there are questions about whether that nominee would be able to form a government this time around, or fall prey to the same futile quandary that Salam bogged himself down in for 10 long months.