Change in Hezbollah will be true sign of change in Iran
Although many have applauded the recent deal between the P5+1 and Tehran on the latter’s nuclear program, a fundamental change in Iranian policy in the region remains to be seen.
On Nov. 24, an agreement was signed between Iran and the major powers regarding Tehran's nuclear program. Some applauded the deal and others criticized it, yet the question on everyone's tongue is: What effect will this agreement have on regional states — especially Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, where Iran has great influence?
In other words, does this atmosphere of openness and cooperation — which led to an agreement in Geneva on an issue that had been disputed for decades — signify a change in Iranian foreign policy? Is Tehran giving up on its “resistance” strategy and its goal of exporting the revolution, which was a tenet of its foreign policy and which produced the tools that were supposed to implement this policy? These tools include first and foremost Hezbollah, Iran's military arm in Lebanon and recently in Syria. Has the talk of this Iranian-American deal paved the way for this agreement to go beyond conspiracy theories and focus on fundamentals or points of convergence in the parties' strategies?
First, it is worth recalling the changes that are taking place on the Iranian scene. It was these changes that formed a wave that brought about this achievement on the diplomatic level. The fundamental turning point was Hassan Rouhani's arrival to the presidency. While it is true that Rouhani is a "son of the regime" and is in no way linked to the revolutionaries, it is also true that those who secured his win and brought him to the presidency through the ballot box — in the first round of elections, in what could be called a sweeping victory — was a generation of young Iranians eager for change and tired of deadly ideologies. Other segments of Iranian society joined in, overwhelmed by the economic sanctions imposed on Iran. They were fed up with the policies of escalation, confrontation and exporting revolution, which had brought the country to the brink of economic collapse and semi-isolated it from the rest of the world. Rouhani's election — in itself, and with the forces that supported him — represented a break from previous policies.
Rouhani's own words during a speech marking the first 100 days of his rule and the clear criticism for his predecessor contained in statements the president posted on Twitter, are clear evidence of this break.
