Following a month of contradictory statements from various Palestinian Authority (PA) officials, on September 5 Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas confirmed that he would seek non-member observer status for Palestine at the United Nations when he addresses the General Assembly on September 27. In his announcement, he pointed to support for the bid from the Non-Aligned Movement, the Arab League's Council of Foreign Ministers and the Islamic states. Yet the Palestinian approach still seems hesitant and half-hearted, suggesting a lackluster result even if the UN vote goes in Palestine's favor.
As in 2011, when Abbas petitioned for full UN membership, the PA appears to lack political commitment to its own bid; instead, it appears to be using it for tactical purposes. It is noteworthy that the Non-Aligned Movement, which issued three statements concerning Palestine at the end of its conference in Tehran this past August, did not formally commit its 120 member states to supporting the UN bid. This probably reflects the fact that the PA has not fully made up its mind to proceed with the UN application, and so has not formally requested a collective commitment from the movement.
The PA has a good chance of securing the simple majority vote it needs in the 193-member General Assembly, but last year's experience among the non-permanent members of the Security Council shows that some states in the Non-Aligned Movement may oppose or abstain if they come under sufficient US pressure. The PA assumes that all countries that have already recognized Palestinian statehood — 126 at present, according to the Palestinian count — will automatically support a bid at the General Assembly, but this may prove to be overly optimistic.
Much depends on the European position. Palestinian officials have claimed that some members of the European Union (EU) have threatened financial sanctions if the Palestinians go ahead with their bid. This reverses the position that the EU took in 2011, when it promised to support the PA if the Palestinians applied for non-member status at the General Assembly. European and US opposition in 2012 may be related to the timing: With presidential elections less than two months away, the Obama administration cannot afford to accommodate any type of Palestinian application to the UN, and the Europeans are reluctant to support a bid that will necessarily bring them into open conflict with the American position.
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