US intel report sees regime change ‘unlikely’ as Iran strikes near Dubai airport

A classified National Intelligence Council report, completed a week before the current US-Iran war, concluded that even a large-scale US assault is unlikely to topple Iran’s entrenched clerical-military regime or bring the opposition to power. The assessment, reported by the Washington Post on Saturday, undercuts expectations by the Trump administration  that intense bombing and decapitation strikes could quickly produce a new, friendlier government in Tehran.

The report comes as Iran continued its attacks on Gulf neighbors. An Iranian drone appears to have struck Dubai International Airport on Saturday less than an hour after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to neighboring countries for recent attacks. 

Footage circulating on social media shows what appears to be an Iranian drone impacting near the airport, prompting a temporary suspension of flights. Operations have since partially resumed, with some flights now taking off and landing, authorities said. 

Earlier, in a televised speech, Pezeshkian said, “I apologize… to the neighboring countries that were attacked by Iran.” He added, “The interim leadership council agreed yesterday that no more attacks will be made on neighboring countries and no missiles will be fired unless an attack on Iran originates from those countries.” Shortly after Pezeshkian’s remarks aired, Qatar reported that it had intercepted a missile attack.

On Friday, the UAE began freezing Iranian assets, a source familiar with the matter told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, marking a sharp escalation in the war’s economic dimensions.

Hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon continue to mount. The Israeli military said Friday night local time that it had hit more than 500 targets in Lebanon since Hezbollah entered the war on Monday, adding that a headquarters used by the IRGC in Lebanon was hit today. Lebanon’s Health Ministry said on Friday that more than 200 people have so far been killed, while the country's social affairs minister said that over 100,000 have been displaced.

The conflict has also spilled into Iraq. Sabereen News, a Telegram channel affiliated with Iran-backed Iraqi militias, said Friday that militias had targeted a hotel in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan. The US State Department warned earlier the same day that militias might target hotels frequented by foreigners in Iraq.