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Analysis

Erdogan’s CHP move raises early poll prospects as Iran war bleeds Turkey’s economy

A court move targeting Turkey’s main opposition party, combined with mounting economic pressure linked to the Iran conflict, is raising expectations of an early vote that could extend President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule.

Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel, speaks to the media at CHP headquarters on May 22, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey.
Republican People's Party leader Ozgur Ozel speaks to the media at CHP headquarters on May 22, 2026, in Ankara, Turkey. — Serdar Ozsoy/Getty Images

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Thursday’s court ruling ousting Ozgur Ozel as head of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was decried by critics as yet another blow to Turkey’s feeble democracy and a nakedly cynical ploy by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to extend his 23 years in power. Turkey’s Western allies have yet to react forcefully. The markets, however, have already delivered their verdict. The Istanbul stock exchange plunged 6%, while state banks were forced to sell more than $8 billion to keep the ailing Turkish lira afloat, Bloomberg and Reuters reported.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, freshly returned from a roadshow in London, convened his top lieutenants on Friday in an effort to calm the jitters. In a statement issued after the meeting, Simsek said the government “will take necessary and coordinated steps to safeguard macro-financial stability” and ensure “the uninterrupted continuation of the disinflation process.” Turkish stocks rebounded slightly, rising 1.5%, while the lira weakened by 0.4%, trading at 45.7 against the dollar. However, the broader outlook for Turkey remains bleaker than ever because of uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, financial analysts monitoring the Turkish economy said.

War jolts already fragile economy

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