While Iran announced Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” to commercial shipping, President Donald Trump quickly confirmed that a US naval blockade on the country’s ports would remain in place until a deal with Tehran is finalized. As Iran’s ability to export and import oil and gas remains constrained, the announcement raises a question: How long can its economy absorb sustained pressure on its maritime trade routes?

Iran’s economy would face severe strain if restrictions on its maritime access persist for weeks. But analysts say Trump may be underestimating both the depth of Iran’s economic resilience and its ability to reroute trade through alternative corridors, including the Caspian Sea and overland routes via neighboring states, while leveraging ties with China and Russia.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that safe passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz had been ensured for the remaining period of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which runs until April 26. The United States imposed a blockade on Iranian ports on April 13, following an initial round of talks between senior Iranian and US officials that failed to produce a breakthrough. A second round of talks could happen in the coming days.

“One major factor that Trump underestimates is the pain threshold of the Islamic Republic of Iran, given this is a fight for regime survival,” Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council for Foreign Relations, told Al-Monitor.