How fast can Gulf energy production rebound after US-Iran ceasefire?
The truce could pave the way for lost oil and LNG supplies to flow back to global markets, but restoring Gulf energy production to normal levels could take months, if not longer.
Oil and gas producers in the Middle East want to bring lost production back online quickly following a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, starting with Qatar. On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the Gulf state is mobilizing to resume liquefied natural gas production at its export hub in Ras Laffan Industrial City, north of Doha, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.
But restoring Gulf energy production to normal levels could take months, if not longer, and there is no guarantee this truce can be successfully implemented, even if this two-week window paves the way for millions of barrels of oil and lost LNG supplies to flow back to global markets through the Strait of Hormuz. Regional oil and gas facilities suffered direct hits during the war, including the world’s largest LNG export hub in Qatar. The full extent of infrastructure damage remains unclear for now, while fallout from the conflict’s energy disruption is poised to reverberate through markets for years to come.
What happened: The two-week ceasefire, first announced by President Donald Trump on Tuesday, is contingent on Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint that typically handles about 20% of global oil and LNG flows.
The agreement followed a fresh barrage of attacks on regional energy targets, including US strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island export hub earlier that day. Even after the ceasefire announcement, hostilities haven’t fully subsided. On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline — a critical route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz — was targeted in a drone strike at around 1 p.m. local time, according to a Financial Times report.
