Iran war hits fertilizer supplies as Fitch warns prices could rise some 25%
Higher prices and availability, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are raising food security concerns globally as well as in the Middle East.
The impact of the war in Iran is rippling through global fertilizer markets, raising concerns about food security just as farmers prepare for spring planting.
A new report from Fitch Ratings on Friday warns that prices for nitrogen fertilizers, key to global crop production, could jump sharply in the short term as the conflict effectively closes the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly 20% of both fertilizer exports and global oil shipments.
The credit rating agency said the disruption could push prices for ammonia and urea up roughly 24–25% for 2026, reflecting both the higher costs of natural gas, used in fertilizer production, and the sudden constraints on shipping from the Middle East. While Fitch expects the closure to be temporary, it cautioned that a prolonged conflict could drive fertilizer prices higher.
Details: Fitch Ratings raised its 2026 price assumptions for several fertilizers, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict and its disruption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
