How Russia stands to win, lose as Iran war squeezes Gulf oil exports
As crude prices surpassed $100 per barrel with the Strait of Hormuz shut, Russia is reaping benefits amid new US sanctions flexibility — but experts say Moscow faces challenges capitalizing on this new market opening.
As fighting between Iran, the United States and Israel rattles global energy markets, most countries are bracing for economic fallout. Yet one major producer is being labeled an early winner in the headlines: Russia.
With the Strait of Hormuz closed — trapping roughly 20% of global oil shipments — crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel amid a scramble to secure alternative supplies. The market shock quickly strengthened Russia’s position in global energy markets despite years of Western sanctions tied to the Ukraine war.
Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, told Al-Monitor, “Russia is clearly benefiting in the short term from the Gulf crisis through higher realized prices, stronger demand for its barrels and narrower discounts.”
Key to Russia’s opening is the Trump administration now demonstrating sanctions flexibility amid efforts to rein in prices. This shift offers Moscow a financial reprieve at a moment when slowing growth, military spending and sanctions have been increasingly straining its economy.
