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Analysis

How Iran's strike on Qatar gas field could impact LNG market for years

Damage from an Iranian strike on the world's largest LNG export hub could take significant supply offline for years as Qatar considers whether to declare force majeure on long-term contracts supplying Europe and Asia.

A picture of Qatar Energy's operating facilities on March 3, 2026 in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar.
A picture of Qatar Energy's operating facilities on March 3, 2026, in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar. — Getty Images

A major Iranian strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial hub this week has triggered a far-reaching shift in global gas markets, raising the prospect that an anticipated glut of liquefied natural gas could instead turn into a prolonged supply crunch.

The attack — which caused "extensive damage” to the world’s largest LNG export complex, according to Qatar — has quickly reverberated beyond the immediate incident. Market observers are now warning the fallout could reshape long-term energy forecasts, pricing dynamics and global energy security.

Before the conflict, 2026 had been widely expected to mark the start of an LNG oversupply cycle, driven by new export capacity from the United States and Qatar. Now, that outlook appears to be unraveling.

What happened: Qatar said Iranian missiles struck Ras Laffan Industrial City on Wednesday, damaging critical infrastructure at the heart of its LNG export system.

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