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Analysis

Could Kurds be Trump's lever in Iran regime-change scenarios?

As US-Israeli strikes rattle the Islamic Republic's command structure, quiet outreach to Iraqi Kurdish leaders is fueling speculation: Can Iran's most organized minority become the decisive ground factor in a war fought from the air?

Protesters hold a banner reading "Come and weave resistance together" and "Women, life, freedom."
Protesters hold a banner reading "Come and weave resistance together" and "Women, life, freedom" — the latter slogan is a popular political Kurdish slogan that became a rallying cry during the protests that occurred in Iran in response to the death of Mahsa Amini — while taking part in a demonstration in solidarity with Kurds in northern Syria, in central Paris, on Jan. 24, 2026. — Blanca CRUZ / AFP via Getty Images

TEHRAN — Four days into the US-Israeli bombing campaign, Iran's military architecture is visibly shaken. In the latest, strikes hit the Assembly of Experts' secretariat in Qom on Tuesday — reportedly to disrupt succession planning — after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday. 

President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social on Tuesday that Iran's air defenses, navy and leadership have been destroyed and that it was "too late" for them to engage in talks.

Yet aerial supremacy may not automatically translate into regime collapse. The unanswered question is: Who, if anyone, can fill the vacuum on the ground?

That is where the Kurdish file reemerges.

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