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How US-India trade deal could impact Mideast energy, trade routes

The United States and India struck a trade agreement on Monday that eases months of tension between the two countries and could influence Gulf oil flows and economic integration.

US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, on Feb. 13, 2025.
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a joint press conference in the East Room of the White House in Washington, on Feb. 13, 2025. — JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

The United States and India struck a trade agreement Monday that eased months of tension between the two countries and may have knock-on effects for the Middle East. 

While the agreement is not explicitly linked to the region, India’s pledge to curb purchases of Russian oil and deepen US economic ties could redirect some Gulf energy flows. It may also revive questions about the stalled trade megaproject known as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

What happened: President Donald Trump announced Feb. 2 that Washington would cut reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% after Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil. Trump is also removing an additional 25% duty on Indian goods that he imposed last year in response to India’s purchases of Russian crude, Bloomberg reported.

Modi confirmed the agreement on social media, saying he looks forward to working closely with Trump to “take our partnership to unprecedented heights.”

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