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Analysis

Why Trump’s Venezuela playbook could face hard reality in Iran

On Wednesday, Trump said an armada larger than the one sent to Venezuela is heading toward Iran and “like with Venezuela,” it is ready to employ force if necessary.

In this handout provided by the US Navy, The USS Gerald R. Ford, and Italian navy offshore Patrol Vessel ITS Paolo Thaon di Revel operate in the Mediterranean Sea, Oct. 2, 2025.
In this handout provided by the US Navy, the USS Gerald R. Ford and Italian navy offshore patrol vessel ITS Paolo Thaon di Revel operate in the Mediterranean Sea, Oct. 2, 2025. — Ada Willis/US Navy via Getty Images

WASHINGTON — As a large US naval force led by the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln nears Iranian waters and President Donald Trump invokes his recent Venezuela operation, tensions with Tehran are rising and the move is prompting questions about whether a Venezuela-style operation is possible in Iran. 

Rhetoric escalates 

On Wednesday, Trump warned that a “massive Armada” was heading toward Iran, explicitly comparing the deployment to the force the United States used earlier this month to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power. 

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the fleet was larger "than that sent to Venezuela" and “Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.” He urged Tehran to come to the table and agree to a deal that would bar the development of nuclear weapons, warning that if negotiations fail, an operation worse than the US strike on Iran in June would follow. 

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