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Analysis

With Hezbollah rearming, Israel considers heavy hits in Lebanon

A diplomatic source told Al-Monitor that Washington is trying to avoid an all-out war in Lebanon but “maybe a significant attack [against Hezbollah] will do the trick."

A large picture of Naim Qassem (C), current leader of the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, is displayed near another of the group's slain longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah during a ceremony marking the first anniversary of Israel's assassination of Nasrallah and other group leaders, in the town of Deir Qanoun al-Nahr near Tyre in southern Lebanon on September 27, 2025. The Iran-backed group, weakened by a deadly war with Israel last year, has organised a series of commemorative events to mark Nasrallah's
A large picture of Naim Qassem (C), current leader of the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, is displayed near another of the group's slain longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah during a ceremony marking the first anniversary of Israel's assassination of Nasrallah and other group leaders, in the town of Deir Qanoun al-Nahr near Tyre in southern Lebanon on September 27, 2025. — MAHMOUD ZAYYAT/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Israel says it has shifted its policy on Lebanon while coordinating with the Trump administration, and is signaling that its readiness to resume heavy attacks against Hezbollah unless the group disarms under the terms of the 2024 ceasefire.

"We are not talking about an all-out war," a senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "We are talking about possibly intensifying our attacks to exact a heavier price from Hezbollah than what we have been exacting from it so far."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his ministers on Sunday that Israel expects “the Lebanese government to uphold its commitments; namely, to disarm Hezbollah. But it’s clear that we’ll exercise our right to self-defense as stipulated in the ceasefire terms.” Following the November 2024 US-mediated ceasefire, Lebanon’s government accepted an American plan in August to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025.

"A new round with Hezbollah is not a question of when," a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. He said that the agreement that led to the end of the war is not being implemented, and that Hezbollah is not disarming. "We appreciate the attempts of the Lebanese government and the Lebanese army, but it is not really succeeding. Therefore we will have no choice but to make it clear to Hezbollah that if it does not disarm voluntarily, it will disarm by force," he added. 

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