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Analysis

Despite uptick in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, both sides reluctant for war

Even as Israel's strikes on Hezbollah fuel speculation about a return to war, Israeli officials say the ceasefire in Lebanon will hold.

MAHMOUD ZAYYAT/AFP via Getty Images
People inspect the wreckage of a vehicle hit by an Israeli strike in the southern Lebanese village of Haruf on Oct. 25, 2025. — MAHMOUD ZAYYAT/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Israel has ramped up its attacks on Hezbollah's efforts to regroup in Lebanon, prompting speculation about a renewed war between the sides even as top US officials work to shore up the 11-month ceasefire.

White House envoy Morgan Ortagus is in Lebanon for discussions on disarming Hezbollah by the end of this year under the terms of the US-mediated ceasefire. US envoy Tom Barrack, who is due in Lebanon next month, warned Oct. 20 that if Hezbollah persists in its refusal to disarm, "Israel may act unilaterally — and the consequences would be grave.” 

War not imminent

But Israeli officials discount the idea of war erupting again. "No, Israel and Lebanon are not facing war. On the contrary, if it were up to Israel and the Lebanese government, we might have some kind of agreement now, but the problem is with Hezbollah,” an Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "We don't think that Hezbollah wants a direct military confrontation with us, but on the other hand, it does not intend to disarm and is constantly making overt and covert attempts to rehabilitate its damaged capabilities, and we are not letting that happen.”

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