Turkey’s deepening engagement in eastern Libya is putting Moscow on the defensive, as Russia struggles to maintain leverage across the Mediterranean amid Turkey’s rising influence and its own diminishing sway in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime. 

The Kremlin’s ability to operate freely in Libya is now constrained not only by local political uncertainty but also by the loss of its key ally in Syria, which has historically served as a springboard for Moscow’s regional logistics and military operations.

Two Russian diplomats told Al-Monitor that Moscow sees Ankara’s recent rapprochement with the Benghazi-based leadership as aimed at curbing Russian influence in territory controlled by Libyan strongman Khalifa Hifter. Both diplomats, as well as two active employees of the Russian special services, say that Turkey’s deepening engagement increases Russia’s dependence on Ankara, giving Turkey greater leverage across both Syria and Libya. At the same time, Moscow remains constrained by the slow and tense transfer of power within the Hifter family.

Historically aligned with Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, Turkey has in recent years expanded its reach eastward, using economic aid and military support to strengthen ties with local authorities in areas controlled by Hifter. A former Gaddafi-era officer, Hifter leads the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) in eastern Libya and wields significant military and political influence, having emerged as a key strongman during the country’s post-2011 civil war and positioning himself as a rival to the Tripoli-based government.