The deadly clashes in southern Syria’s Suwayda province this week have reignited Ankara’s fears of Syria fragmenting along ethnic and sectarian lines in the Druze strongholds in the south and the Kurdish-controlled areas in the north. Turkey swiftly condemned Israeli airstrikes on Syrian government targets amid the violence, but its deeper concern stems from the potential for Syria’s disintegration to spill across borders.

With millions of Syrian refugees still in Turkey and Kurdish autonomy entrenched near its frontier, Ankara is doubling down on its push to preserve Syria’s territorial integrity. Turkish officials fear that any formal partition of Syria would embolden the Kurdish administration in the north to cement its autonomy, potentially inspiring similar ambitions among Turkey’s own Kurdish population.

From engaging Damascus and the Gulf states and possibly pressing US President Donald Trump to pressure Israel to cease its attacks, Erdogan’s government is working to shape a post-conflict Syria that will not threaten Turkey’s internal stability or empower Kurdish separatists.

Long-standing friction