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Analysis

Middle East braces for Trump's tariffs: Gulf gains, North Africa strains as both hedge

The tariffs could be wins for the Gulf states, as many have trade surpluses with the United States, while some in North Africa and the Levant, with trade deficits, stand to lose.

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 29: U.S. President Donald Trump walks across the South Lawn of the White House followed by granddaughter Chloe after returning on Marine One on July 29, 2025 in Washington, DC. President Trump returned to the White House with his family after a trip to Scotland that was part vacation, part work, as he stayed at his Trump Turnberry golf course, followed by Trump International Golf Links in Aberdeenshire, from July 25 to 29. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
US President Donald Trump walks across the South Lawn of the White House followed by granddaughter Chloe after returning on Marine One on July 29, 2025 in Washington, DC. — Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

US President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs are scheduled to take effect on Friday, sending shockwaves through economies worldwide, including in the Middle East and North Africa.

Tariffs have become a cornerstone of the second Trump administration's economic and foreign policies, with Trump on April 2 announcing wide levies in response, he claimed, to unfair trade practices by other countries against the United States.

Each country was declared subject to no less than a 10% tariff on exports to the United States. The levies were higher for countries running a trade deficit with the United States, that is, those exporting more physical goods to the United States than they import from it. The Trump administration calculated the tariff rates by taking a country's trade deficit in goods with the United States,  dividing it by the total goods imported from that country, and then halving that number. No consideration was given to the nature or importance of the goods involved.

For the Middle East, the tariffs mean the Gulf countries will emerge major winners, as many of them have trade surpluses with the United States, while some countries in North Africa and the Levant, those with deficits, stand to lose more. 

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