Ekrem Imamoglu, the opposition mayor of Istanbul billed as the sole man who could beat Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan in an election, was arrested on Wednesday on terror and corruption charges. Two other mayors from Imamoglu’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) from Istanbul’s Sisli and Beylikduzu districts were among more than 80 people detained in the sweep that sent the Turkish lira and the Istanbul stock market plunging and is being widely labeled by government critics as a coup. 

Anyone familiar with the Turkish strongman could have easily guessed that Imamoglu’s fate was sealed the day he wrested Istanbul from Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in nationwide municipal elections in 2019, and held on to the city in the latest round last year, beating the AKP by an 11% margin. On Tuesday, bowing to government pressure, Istanbul University nullified Imamoglu’s college degree, citing alleged irregularities in his transfer from a university in northern Cyprus. The decision disqualified Imamoglu from running for president, as candidates are required to hold a university diploma. Many believed Erdogan would leave things there. 

He didn’t, and it is now more than likely that the government will cook up further allegations to cancel a CHP primary that is due to be held March 23 to elect the party’s presidential candidate for the 2028 elections. CHP leader Ozgur Ozel insists that it will be held, suggesting that Imamoglu will be elected whether or not he is still in custody. 

There will be much punditry on the legal merits of all the government’s moves, including the more than 20 cases mounted against Imamoglu, and how Turkey’s judiciary has become a tool of Erdogan’s repression.