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Analysis

Are Lebanon, Syria ripe for peace with Israel or on cusp of more escalation?

While some Israeli leaders hope for normalized ties with Lebanon and Syria, others warn that the uncertainty of the current situation could become permanent or deteriorate.

An Israeli soldier checks a Merkava battle tank deployed at a position in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights along the border with southern Syria on March 25, 2025. Israel's military said it carried out a second strike in Syria on March 25, in response to incoming fire from across the demarcation line, hours after Syrian authorities reported that at least five people had been killed as a result of Israeli shelling. (Photo by Jalaa MAREY / AFP) (Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)
An Israeli soldier checks a Merkava battle tank deployed at a position in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights along the border with southern Syria on March 25, 2025. — JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images

TEL AVIV — Truth be told, negotiations on demarcating the border between Israel and Lebanon and the four-month-old ceasefire deal between the two countries have not restored calm to northern Israel. In this transitional period, not only have cross-border rocket attacks by Hezbollah continued and Israeli air raids resumed, Israeli forces have also clashed with gunmen in southern Syria. In addition, the Israeli military is settling into positions it has assumed in recent months in southern Lebanon and the Israel-Syria buffer zone and Golan Heights, allowing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ostensibly claim to be the first Israeli premier to expand the country's borders — at least temporarily.

Skirmishes continue

Daily skirmishes continue as Israelis in the north trickle uncertainly back to homes they were forced to abandon when Hezbollah intensified attacks in October 2023, in solidarity with Hamas after the Palestinian group's incursion into southern Israel. 

In the first significant breach of the Israel-Lebanese ceasefire agreement, at least six rockets were fired March 22 from southern Lebanon at the Israeli town of Metula. Three of them fell short of the border, and Israeli air defenses intercepted three others. Today, two rockets were fired toward Israel, one falling short of the border and the other being intercepted. Israel responded to both attacks with air strikes on Hezbollah targets, and today, also called on the residents of a few buildings in Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburbs, to evacuate, signaling that they are too close to Hezbollah infrastructure, which the army might be targeting.

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