With the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government — a cornerstone of Moscow’s influence in the Middle East — Russia’s geopolitical focus has shifted toward Libya. Multiple reports indicate that Moscow has begun flights to an air base in the Libyan desert while evacuating parts of its military presence from Syria. 

Flight-tracking data analyzed by CNN last week revealed that, since mid-December, Moscow's Antonov AN-124 transport planes and Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft have been conducting more than one flight per day from Hmeimim air base in Syria to al-Khadim, a base near Benghazi in eastern Libya. The news aligns with reports from Syria indicating that Moscow has been evacuating Hmeimim since Assad's fall on Dec. 8, while still maintaining a presence at its only naval base on the Mediterranean in the Syrian city of Tartous.

This recalibration reflects Moscow’s attempt to sustain its global influence by engaging in North Africa’s fragmented and complex landscape. However, the strategic shift from Syria to Libya exposes significant limitations in Russia’s approach, revealing the challenges inherent in navigating Libya’s distinctive dynamics and geopolitical landscape.

Fragile foundations in Libya