RIYADH — The outcome of the US elections is likely to significantly impact Middle East energy markets, with potential consequences for how much oil could be exported from the region, analysts said.

Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris will face off in the polls on Nov. 5. The elections are being closely watched by oil-producing countries of the Middle East that are considering how each presidency would affect the stability of their economies and the oil markets.

Trump has said if he wins he'll roll back federal regulations on the fossil fuel industry. Such a move could lower costs for US producers and make them more competitive globally compared with states such as Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of oil, and Qatar, one of the top exporters of liquefied natural gas.

Stronger oil supply growth from the United States would exert downward pressure on global oil prices and whittle away power from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The latter — which includes Gulf countries Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE —  is responsible for producing around 40% of the world’s oil. Brent, the global benchmark under which two-thirds of the oil is traded, has averaged around $83 per barrel for most of 2024, well below the breakeven prices favored by certain Arab states to balance their budgets. According to the International Monetary Fund, Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven price for 2024 was $96.20 per barrel, while the figure stood at $94 for Iraq, the second largest Arab oil producer.