Global fears of a Mideast oil shock loomed larger as the Gaza war passed the one-year mark on Oct. 7. Most focus has centered on Israel potentially striking Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for its Oct. 1 missile attack, impacting Gulf energy flows, but risks facing the gas-rich Eastern Mediterranean also cannot be overlooked.

Any attacks on oil installations in Iran — OPEC's third-biggest producer, with an output of 3.277 million barrels per day as of August — would at least temporarily hike global energy prices (although there’s no capacity shortage in markets currently) but aftershocks could also expose Israeli energy assets. “It’s risky because Iran will likely retaliate by trying to hit Israeli energy infrastructure,” said Elai Rettig, an assistant professor in energy politics at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University.

Those strikes could come directly from Iran or through proxies. Should they fail, Iran could also hit Gulf oil installations, which would spark global fallout. Against that backdrop, Rettig tells Al-Monitor that Israel would be better off hitting Iran’s military installations, naval capacities and even nuclear capabilities rather than oil installations. 

As of this writing, East Med gas infrastructure hasn’t been successfully targeted. However, Chevron reportedly temporarily shut down its Israeli gas fields as a precautionary measure on Oct. 1, while Israeli gas producer NewMed confirmed on Oct. 6 that a pipeline project intended to expand gas supply capacity was now delayed until April 2025 due to the escalation.