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Analysis

Turkey Elections: Gulf investments likely to be challenged if Erdogan loses

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party and presidential competitor, said he will reevaluate Gulf country purchases in Turkey if he wins in the May 14 elections.

People walk past a poster showing the portrait of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of the main opposition alliance, and the words translating to "Promise to You," Istanbul, Turkey, May 05, 2023.
People walk past a poster showing the portrait of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of the main opposition alliance, and the words translating to "Promise to You," Istanbul, Turkey, May 05, 2023. — Burak Kara/Getty Images

DUBAI — Several Gulf Arab states have a large stake in Turkey’s presidential elections, and stand to have their years-long investments scrutinized if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan loses his 20-year power streak.

Saudi Arabia injected $5 billion in Turkey’s central bank in March to help strengthen the country’s currency after the two massive earthquakes that devastated its people and economy the month before.

That same month, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed an agreement with Erdogan to increase bilateral trade to $40 billion by 2028. In June 2022, the UAE’s smallest of three main sovereign wealth funds — investment firm ADQ — bought Turkish pharmaceutical company Birgi Mefar Group.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, envisions that if Turkey’s government changes, so will Gulf influence in the country.

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