The Ukraine war has thawed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s chilly ties with his Western partners and halted the erosion in his popular support despite ongoing economic turmoil at home. Erdogan is hoping for gains also in Syria, counting on Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine.

Amid decreased Russian activity in Syria, Turkey has taken escalatory steps — on the northeastern frontlines with the Kurds, in particular — and moved to reinforce its bases in Idlib, the northwestern province held by Islamist rebels. 

More importantly, Erdogan has allegedly sent a message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a bid to normalize ties. According to the government-controlled daily Hurriyet, which reported the claim April 4, government officials blame Russia and Iran for obstructing previous “opportunities for progress with Syria” and see a chance for “a new beginning” with Damascus, now that Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine, hoping to resolve the Syrian refugee issue and “the PKK problem” — a reference to the Kurdistan Workers Party, which Ankara designates as a terrorist group over its armed insurgency in Turkey and equates with the Syrian Kurdish groups seeking self-rule in northern Syria.

Turkish officials reportedly see Assad’s March visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a sign that he is seeking new openings and support. According to the report, “the government is discussing the initiation of dialogue with the Assad administration” on the basis of three main points: preserving Syria’s unitary structure, securing its territorial integrity and ensuring the safe return of refugees. Ankara communicated its priorities to Damascus before Assad’s trip to Abu Dhabi, hoping that its recent reconciliation with the UAE could help it turn a new page with Syria, which eventually could lead to the return of at least half of the Syrian refugees currently in Turkey, according to Hurriyet.