Hot take: Iran looking for goodwill gesture by US to overcome mistrust

Talks between Iran and other parties to the Joint Comprehensive of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal, are scheduled to resume in Vienna Nov. 29, and the expectations could hardly be lower. Iran and the United States haven’t yet agreed on who goes first in getting to a return to “mutual compliance.” And there’s an ominous backdrop, with worries that Israel may be ramping up preparations for a military strike to derail Iran’s nuclear program.

Background: The JCPOA was signed in 2015 by the United States, Iran, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia and China. The deal was that Iran would get relief from longtime economic sanctions in return for agreeing to constraints on its nuclear program, enforced by fairly intrusive inspection and monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018 and restored US sanctions on Iran. Tehran responded by accelerating production of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which could theoretically be used for weapons. Negotiations to reactivate the JCPOA began this year after the Biden administration came to office but ended in June after the election of Ebrahim Raisi as president of Iran.

What the IAEA is saying: The IAEA said in September that Iran’s restrictions on access to its facilities were seriously compromising the agency’s oversight. In August, the IAEA noted that Iran was enriching uranium at 60%, well above the 3.67% cap in the JCPOA. HEU at 90% purity is required for nuclear weapons development.