CAIRO — Egypt, as well as the entire international community, is in a state of anticipation after the regional and ethnic conflict in Ethiopia further escalated as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) continues to take over strategic cities, namely Dessie and Kombolcha in the Amhara region, which are only about 400 kilometers from Addis Ababa. The TPLF has also seized areas in the Shewa region adjacent to the capital.

Both the Ethiopian government and the people fear the TPLF could reach Addis Ababa, especially after it succeeded in forming an alliance that includes nine armed groups from the Oromia region.

The recent developments in Ethiopia raise great concerns for the Egyptian government, especially since Cairo is in disagreement with Addis Ababa due to the latter’s refusal to reach a binding legal agreement on the mechanisms of operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), whose construction cost on the Blue Nile amounted to nearly $6 billion.

Maj. Gen. Mohammed Ali Bilal, former deputy chief of staff of the Egyptian armed forces, told Al-Monitor, “There is no doubt that any conflicts or instability in Africa affects Egypt because we belong to this continent. The developments in Ethiopia affect us directly with regard to the GERD issue. Should the conflict persist for a long time, who will Egypt negotiate with? What if the TPLF makes it to power?”