The crisis in the Nile basin over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has emerged as a new balancing factor in Turkey’s ties with Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan as Ankara seeks to mend fences and regain influence in the region.

Ethiopia has sought better relations with Turkey in recent years, keen on enlisting Turkish support against the Arab backing for Egypt and Sudan in the escalating row over the waters of the Nile. Turkey, for its part, has made Ethiopia the main gateway of its quest for regional influence after losing its allies in Egypt and Sudan due to changes in governments in those two nations.

Cairo and Khartoum are both wary that Turkey might expand its ties with Ethiopia to the military realm and upset the balance in the region. One reason why Cairo welcomed Ankara’s normalization bid earlier this year was to push Turkey into a neutral position in terms of the equilibrium in the Nile basin. Khartoum appears to be making a similar calculus as diplomatic efforts to resolve the dam crisis remain futile.

After the 2019 overthrow of Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir, a close ally, Ankara found itself at odds with the new rulers in Khartoum, who were supported by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In the past several months, however, the bilateral chill has quietly thawed. In late May, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the vice president of the Sovereign Council that oversees Sudan’s transition to civilian rule, became the first high-level Sudanese official to visit Ankara since Bashir’s ouster.