Hot Take: Tigray conflict overtakes Nile dam diplomacy

Back burner: The already stalled diplomacy to resolve the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been subsumed by the escalation in the conflict between the Ethiopian government, backed by Eritrea, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). 

Latest: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called on Aug. 10 for mass enlistment to counter TPLF military advances. Last month, Abiy referred to the TPLF as a "cancer" on Ethiopian society, and to the TPLF as "weeds," adding that although "there may be arguments about the means of the Ethiopian military campaign … this will not stop us from achieving our goals," in a speech roundly criticized as inflammatory. The war began in November 2020 when Ethiopia accused the TPLF of an attack on an Ethiopian military base, which the TPLF denied. After initial successes against the TPLF, the military has lost ground in Tigray and adjoining regions of Ethiopia. Both sides have been accused of atrocities.

Ethiopia rejects Sudan mediation: Ethiopia claims Sudan, which had been attempting to mediate the Tigray conflict, is not credible because Khartoum has taken advantage of the conflict to seize Ethiopian territory. Sudan is also aligned with Egypt on the GERD dispute. Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has had the support of the Biden administration to try to broker a cease-fire in his role as chair of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development IGAD (which also includes Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti, Sudan, Uganda and Somalia). Mohamed Saied reports here on the breakdown in Sudan-Ethiopia ties over Tigray. Sudan has received 78,000 refugees from the Tigray region.