Hot take: Missed warning signs in Tunisia?

The regional dimension. A keystone of North Africa is again in crisis. On July 25, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi, suspended the parliament and ended immunity or parliamentarians and officials, whom he threatened to put on trial for corruption. He also deployed troops in the capital. On one level, the move by Saied is a move against the Islamist Ennahda party, which holds the most seats in the parliament and is associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. The action by Saied and the military is therefore perceived, at a regional level, as a blow against Turkey, Qatar and Libya, whose governments are considered close to the Brotherhood. The buzz is that Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are all in behind Saied’s actions against Ennahda.

"Downside risks dominate." But Saied’s actions, which opponents are describing as a coup, come in the context of popular demonstrations and overall frustration with a collapsing economy. 

In February, an International Monetary Fund report on Tunisia warned that the COVID-19 pandemic was "exacerbating Tunisia’s socio-economic fragilities." Tunisia’s vaccination rate has been unusually low, even by regional standards, at about 7%. The country has had over 575,000 cases of COVID-19 and nearly 19,000 deaths — with a population just under 12 million people. While the IMF anticipated "modest" economic improvement this year, it also has warned that "downside risks dominate" and that public debt could become "unsustainable." Gross domestic product last year contracted by 8.2% with official unemployment jumping to 6.2%, accompanied by a sharp increase in the fiscal deficit and public debt.