In recent weeks, Russia has been showing greater interest in Lebanese affairs, specifically when it comes to breaking the political deadlock between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri. What is Russia's game plan for Lebanon?

Several meetings between Aoun and Hariri have ended in failure, with Hariri denouncing the president’s attempts to stall the Cabinet formation process. The two leaders appear divided on whether one-third of the next Cabinet should be under control of the president; this could give Aoun and his allies greater control over the next presidential elections in 2022.  

Russian officials have held a number of meetings with Lebanese politicians in the last few months and have been issuing statements on the Lebanese crisis. As the Lebanese Cabinet formation stalemate persists, Moscow is increasingly looking to engender progress in Lebanon to protect Russian assets in Syria.

“Moscow sees Lebanon as a vulnerability for Syria, given the social and economic interconnection between the two countries,” said Nabil Bou Mounsif, a veteran journalist in Lebanon.